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Investors faced with illliquid marketplaces will value dividends more, since they signify cash in hand, whereas price understanding is more risky (because you have to sell your stock to get it). Consequently, you should expect dividends to go up in the face of higher illiquidity, while stock buybacks to fall off.
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In the Kondratieff piece described previous I argued that the world inserted a fresh K upswing in 1999. I’d point to the fact that everyday going back year product prices have been striking new all-time highs. The next aspect is that through the down lower leg of the K routine there is more incentive to develop new ideas. But like the exploration and development of new mines etc rather. such new ideas take time to formulate and develop.
These new ideas get taken up as economic development accelerates in the upswing both as new types of consumer products, and as new ways of production. Finally, there is certainly labour. Over the time of the downswing Capital has more of the whip hand than it normally will. It offers more reason to withstand the needs of labour faced with falling rates of revenue, and more severe, and more regular recessions. In itself these press on labour down. I think all of these elements can be determined in the present conjuncture, and which should give confidence to Marxists that more the conditions are developing for militant working course struggles once.
How these challenges manifest themselves will vary. In China income are increasing by 10% plus per 12 months, and there are obvious signs that Chinese workers are beginning to are more organised. The same is true of workers in South Korea and other rapidly growing Asian economies. Under these conditions workers struggles are likely to take on an offensive nature increasingly. Yet in the US, the UK and Europe despite signs of financial growth it is anaemic compared to China and elsewhere.
The reason is these economies are greatly inefficient compared to China which combines the latest technology, with low income labour. Consequently, we see Delphi declaring bankruptcy with GM looking to be not too much behind. Soon the type of the struggles changes from being protective to unpleasant challenges noticeably, and Trade and Marxists Union militants must be prepared to reorient to that situation, or there is a danger of being left behind the course.
It will start to express itself in another aspect of the Kondratieff cycle. During the last 20 years traditional western governments have pumped large sums of liquidity into the economic system to reduce the effects of tough economy. As Marx highlights when economies are growing quickly they might need increased levels of money to be placed in circulation in order to allow goods to circulate.
When real cash – silver – was used there was a self-correcting mechanism which threw out excess currency from flow. But since economies have used fiat currencies in place of gold this mechanism no longer exists. Consequently, any upsurge in the amount of money tokens (paper money and cash) or credit over and above what is required for flow leads to a devaluation of the tokens, and thereby inflation. This inflation has not been manifest because of two things. 12 months will probably start to see the return of inflation In a nutshell the next, and the existing rise in the price of yellow metal is a frontrunner of that.
